Bulls are not giving Bears even an inch of space to breathe

Yes, that's what Bulls are doing so from the time when Cong won 2009 lok sabha elections or we can say even before that. Bulls are hitting back and they are hitting back hard, as u must have seen what happened on Friday after12:30 pm. Nifty opened gap down and went to lower levels gradually till 4800, after forming a sort of base at 4800 it bounced back sharply to levels on 4950. Dubai crisis might loom large on the stock markets worldwide for some more time after it is clear that there will be no further repercussions due to this crisis.


Nifty view:

Nifty bounced back from 40 points before the next major support of 4767 after 4838 was broken convincingly. The next major resistances comes at 4986 and 5020 and supports are 4870,4840. Markets may remain in a range of 5100-4770 unless something major happens on Dubai front which could take market down.



Stock View: NiitTech

Now red trendline signals DANGER and green trendline signals Go Go Go!!!. Breaking red line which is being obeyed since October will take it to 135 odd levels. Breaking green line or sustained above 163can take it to 175 odd levels. Just wait for the Breakout or Breakdown!!!




Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

A Triple digit fall on Triple Witching Day

It has been a year since the horrific Mumbai terror attacks, which claimed nearly 200 lives and injured 300 others. I pay my tribute to NSG Commandos and Mumbai Police Jawans who died in this attack last year. Thank you Jawans for fighting it out for around 60 hours to save our lives. It is because of You all only that we are lucky enough to be alive today

Jai Hind !!!






Nifty View: Markets took support from the same levels which i mentioned yesterday, each time it took support it bounced back and then fell again. As world markets including Europe closed down deep in the red, Europe as much as 3 % down and Dow Jones Futures is trading down a couple of hundred points, it is evident that there would be a weak opening in the Indian Stock Markets tomorrow. So the big question is that where will the markets find support?

The answer is that these Fibonacci retracements will help a lot.

5138-- The recently made high
4538-- The recently made low
24% - 4996 ( from where it took support from today )
38% - 4908
50%- 4838
61.8%-- 4767


The first obvious support is 4970 which is 50 dma, then comes 4935 around which last time we bounced back sharply, then comes 4838 which is 50 % retracement of the entire rise. The last , final and major support is 4767 which is 61.8 % retracement level of the entire rise. 61.8% retracement level + support from trendline ( Red colour ) = 4760



HavE A nice trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

5113 double top broken, But Market not moving as expected due to expiry of contracts

Nifty View: 5113 was broken but Nifty still didnt move to 5180 levels and was finding it difficult to cross 5140 level. Tomorrow is the triple witching day and expiry is most likely between 100 points range of 5050-5180. This expiry will end with almost 10 % appreciation in index levels. Since March 2009 there have been no instance when RSI ( Relative Strength Index) breached 82-83 level, right now also we are somewhat poised at the same level as markets are looking overbought. So we need some consolidation so that we can take out the last intermediate high of 5180 or the correction upto levels mentioned below will make Nifty a perfect candidate for the break out above 5180 5050/5015/4975/4930

Stock View: Satyam Comp

SATYAM has given a breakdown below ( Red Line )98 levels today and is expected to touch 78-79 levels if it breaks 88 because of only 2 reasons

1) 200 dma at 79
2) 78.5 is the 61.8% retracement of the entire rise from 6 to 140.

If 78 is broken on the downside then expect70 or green line to be the next major support



Have a nice triple witching day. Do not go leverage

Regards

Ankit

Volatility to continue till expiry, Expect more intraday moves like one you saw today

At around 12:30 Nifty touched a low of 5053, when one was expecting more downside from 5053 strong support zone of 5010-5020 as all Asian markets were down 1-2% and especially Shanghai which was down 3%, Nifty snapped back and was into green territory within 2 hours of touching low. Meanwhile telecom stocks got some respite from everyday selling and as a result Bharti Airtel was the top gainer in Nifty. And our stock idea of yesterday ( NIITLTD ) was also up 5 %, I hope u enjoyed it.

Before: Recommended on 23/11/2009



After : Stock up 5 % the very next day




Nifty View: Nifty has a made a double top at 5113 level, so for any upmove to continue Bulls have to take out this first for the next target of 5180. On the downside 5050 ( today's low ), 5010-5020 and then 4950-4960. Though i don't expect markets to go below 50 dma before the expiry, 50 dma is at 4950


DowJones View: Now 10500 seems to be tough for bulls to cross that too with huge volumes, if 10500-10600 is not taken out by bulls within 3-5 days then expect 10100-10000 on DowJones. As u see in charts the volumes are decreasing day by day while the index is more or less at same levels


Stock view: KTK Bank Ktk Bank has remained a weak candidate ever since it touched 180 levels around Diwali. A close below 124-123 levels can take this stock to 114-115 where the 200 dma is placed and the stock has strong support there


Have a happy trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

Breaks out above 5080, eyeing 5180 in 2-3 sessions

It seems 5180 is the last hurdle for bulls, after that is achieved u can see levels of 5250-5300 in extreme short term. Telecom stocks were beaten today on fresh concerns over intensifying tariff war between the operators. Tata Docomo and MTS are the two operators that are responsible for this intensification as MTS has introduced half paise per second billing and Tata Docomo has taken its 1 paisa/ sec plan to roaming also, an area where operators earlier earned good margins


Nifty View:

Perfect parallel channel seen on charts of Nifty, the targets for this perfect channel are 5250-5300. Only one level that can cause any hindrance to this rally can be a sort of Double top Formation around levels of 5180. If Bulls managed to close above this level then expect Nifty heading towards upper end of channel.


Stock View: NIITLTD Since July stock is trading in a parallel channel ( read between 2 black lines ) which has supports at 55-56 i.e at the lower end of channel and potential to go upto 80 i.e. upper end of a channel. Once the stock moves out of converging two red lines and breaks out with volumes then only we can see upper end of channel.. The stock needs to trade above 67.5 with huge volumes.



Have a nice trading day!

Regards

Ankit

Markets are " Supreme ", Respect the screen in front of you

Nifty takes support from around 50 dma and rise sharply to almost touch a new intermediate high. After witnessing Friday's day of trade I think Markets can be so unpredictable and so volatile sometimes, but nevertheless that is why Markets are " Supreme " and we should always respect the screen

Nifty View:

The next obvious resistance comes at 5075-5080 and 4940-4930 will act as a very good support and buying will emerge at these levels. There's something special about 4900-4940 levels that markets always takes support at these levels. During September and October, how hard bears tried but 4900-4940 was never broken except at the end of the October when it was actually broken.



DowJones View: Rising wedge pattern is seen in DowJones. If 10500-10600 is not broken on the upside this week then expect 10000 on DowJones anytime soon and that will result 3-5% correction in global equity markets ( though BRIC nations could be an exception and may be they dont fall much as expected ).




Stock View: Unitech

The stock has bounced from a good support level around of 77-78 on Friday, and if lower trendline holds it can see a pull back upto 85 odd levels




Have a nice trading day !

Regards

Ankit

Ring a ring a roses a pocket full of poses ti-shoo to-shoo WE ALL FALL DOWN!!!

You must have heard about this nursery rhyme when u were 5-6 years old, sometimes the effect of this rhyme is seen in stock markets too. Starting from yesterday DowJones started to show some kind of weakness, falling about 100 points in intraday and then recovering sharply to close only 10 points lower, then Asian markets started to show weakness and were down 1% each at end of day taking Our markets down to 1% and then Europe and DowJones Futures followed this cue and at end of everything DowJones is down 140 points as i post this article on the blog. That's why it seems to me as " We all fall down ". This cyclical downturn in global markets may have been sparked by Dollar snapping back from its 15 month lows and it could be normal profit booking which was long overdue.


Nifty View:

Some say we can see a fall upto 4500, ( extremely bearish people say 3800 ) & some are expecting it to be just a profit booking. Whatever it may be that only time will tell. What Nifty has done is , it has finally given some winter break to bulls or else there were also talks of one side upmove to 5400 which would have taken everyone by a surprise rather " Shock ".

Nifty has rallied non stop from 4540 to 5075 levels.There are various good support levels from where markets can bounce back:
1) 24 % retracement of the move + 50 dma = 4945
2) 38% retracement + Double bottom made on 10th and 11th Nov = 4865
3) 50% retracement + Red trendline = 4805
Just watch out for these levels


Have a nice trading day!!! Do not make over leverage positions

Regards

Ankit

Boring day of trade, Nifty moves in range of 30 points

It was literally a boring day of trade today with only Stocks that too mid cap and small cap moving five to ten percent and our Hotel Leela was among them and was up around 5%. DowJones as of now is trading below 10400 which has become a pivot point for the next big move in markets

Nifty View:

Second time in last six trading sessions, Nifty has found resistance which it is not able to break continuously for the last three days. This shows signs of weakness in stock markets.
16th Nov high - 5073.2
17th Nov high - 5074
18th Nov high- 5079
If Nifty falls then 5010-5020 will act as a good support.


Stock View: PunjLloyd

The stock was beaten down very badly after the results and didnt recover at all in the recent rally in markets. So naturally the stock is looking weak technicallyTrendline at 200 level will act as a major support, below which next major support comes at 175-180 where one can buy with a medium term view


Have a wonderful trading day!!

Regards

Ankit

Some stock views that were recommended here and there outcomes!!!

BANKINDIA:

Recommended as on October 29th,



After as on 17th November



EDUCOMP:

Recommended as on November 10th,



After as on 17th November




AMTEK AUTO: I thank my friend who asked me to analyse this stock, this recommendation was because of him :)

Recommended as on November 12th,



After as on 17th November


These stocks were the best 3 that i liked from the whole gamut of stocks that were recommended during last 1 month.

Have a nice trading day!

Regards

Ankit

Its anybody's guess where Nifty would stop before touching previous highs

Nifty View:

Nifty is heading towards previous intermediate highs of around 5200 but that does not mean that we should buy at this level. We should wait for dips to buy the stocks and that too in a staggered manner

Dow Jones view:

As is post this chart, Dow Jones is up 135 points at 10405, the breakout from this channel will be confirmed if and only if it crosses and closes above this upper trend line for a few sessions and that too with huge volumes .


Stock View: ALOKTEXT

In the coming days it can see a breakout from this converging triangle on the higher side , if it stays and close above 22.5 then targets are placed at 26-28.


Have a nice trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

On Friday Nifty again falls from around 5015 levels only to close just 1 point shy of 5000

Nifty View:

The intra-day highs of Nifty of last 3 days are very close to each other
Wednesday, 11 th November 2009- 5016.7
Thursday, 12th November 2009- 5014.4
Friday, 13th November 2009- 5017.9

So there is a clear indication that if Nifty manages to cross 5020 levels, it will give a 20-30 points move which will take it to next big resistance of 5040-5050 which will be an uphill task for bulls to cross that level. The support for Nifty is placed at 4955-4960 and next is 4925-4930. Below these two levels there could be a free fall to the 4860-4870 levels.

DowJones View:

DowJones is obeying this not-so-parallel or a converging channel since mar 2008 lows of 6400, so any breakout or break down from this channel can see a 5 -10% upmove or downmove in the index. 7 times it has touched the upper line of the channel and 3 times the down line of the channel.




Stock View:

Today i am going to discuss about a cluster of stocks from a single sector i.e Hotels, as the sector technically is looking very hot and fundamentally there are immense growth prospects for this sector as the salary hikes in the coming quarters and overall economic growth will benefit this industry.

Ind Hotel:

This is the first stock of the sector that has given a breakout. The stock has given a breakout above 85 levels and need to sustain for next targets of 95-100. Now 84-85 becomes as a good support for the stock


TajGvk:

Parallel channel formed in this stock and is precariously poised at upper end of the channel, needs to cross 160 levels with huge volumes to breakout from this channel or will continue to remain in this 40 rupees range from 120-160



EIHOTEL:

Can buy on dips to 125 odd levels with a stop loss placed at 120 on closing basis and the stock can give a move upto 150 odd levels



Hotel Leela ( as i have discussed earlier ):

Hotel leela is a buy on dips and as and when it crosses 40-41 with huge volunes and closes above this range, it will show levels of 45-50



Have a very nice trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

Last retracement level also almost achieved, Bulls take a breather

After almost vertical rise in markets in the last few days, Bulls took a day off and there were more stock specific moves today. IIP data were good and better than expected, markets almost made a new high after this news but due to profit booking and weak closing of Asian Markets, our markets came sharply down only to bounce back from strong support zone of 4925-4930. Dollar Index has bounced back from 15 month lows and this move lead to stocks paring gains in U.S markets

Nifty View:

Nifty has very strong supports of 4925-4930 and 4860-4870 and is likely to face resistance at 5020 and then 5055. The view almost remains the same as yesterday.

Stocks View:

Amtek Auto: Amtek Auto can give a good bounce back from trendline, if breaks trendline then there is a huge support at 160 odd levels


Stock View: Hoteleela Hotel leela is a buy on dips and as and when it crosses 40-41 with huge volunes and closes above this range, it will show levels of 45-50


Have a nice trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

It just takes 12 trading sessions to make a fool of a retail investor, 6 days from 5000 to 4500 and next 6 from 4500 to 5000. Perfect Timing!!!

Yesterday only i was talking about that it could be most talked about " V " shape recoveries in Indian Markets and today it has completed my wish. Only 12 trading sessions, i repeat only 12 trading sessions it took for markets to show almost a complete swing of 20 %. First a 10 % correction from the levels of 5000 to 4500 and then from 4500 to 5000, that is also a 10% move even more than that. There are 3 types of recoveries that we usually see in markets namely U,V and W. This latest one is a " V " one. Below is the chart to show how a " V " shape recovery look like. Just look how sharply it corrects from the top of 5000 to almost 4500 and then how it recovers back to 5000, all this in 12 trading sessions.




Nifty view: The view remains the same as yesterday but the only difference is that i was expecting a consolidation before a move to 5300 but i think markets are in a hurry to complete the targets :). Nifty should head towards the upper part of channel i.e. 5300. On the downside if the trendline which is placed at 4600 is broken, then we can see fall upto 4400 levels



Dow Jones View:

Exactly same chart pattern was observed in Nifty at 5150 odd levels and we all know Nifty corrected almost 15 % to 4500 odd level. Going by the charts Dow Jones will face huge resistance in the zone of 10300-10400. As of today, It falls back almost 100 points after touching a high of 10342



Have a wonderful trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

Just Kissed 4950 and fell almost 100 points from highs, some respite for bears

Finally something for bears to cheer about or it could have been most talked about V- shaped recoveries if we would have touched a new intermediate high without consolidating or a correction. Nifty could not sustain above 61.8% level ( 4936 ) and fell 100 points. Analyst's comments on markets on business TV channels have left investors undecided on whether to invest right now or wait for markets to correct. If one of the Analysts, independent or with any firm will give targets of 12500-13000 on Sensex then other one will say that he can still see a 5-10 % upmove from these levels in short term. In this scenario when there is so much undecision one should pick good stocks and invest in a staggered and pyramid way so that the left out feeling is not there. I will post more about this strategy of investing in a pyramid manner during this week


Nifty view:

The supports for Nifty are placed at around 4780-4800 while resistance seems to be 4930-4950. A parallel channel is formed on the daily charts , after consolidating at the current levels Nifty should head towards the upper part of channel i.e. 5300. On the downside if the trendline which is placed at 4600 is broken, then we can see fall upto 4400 levels




Stock View: EDUCOMP

700 has been acting as a very good support for Educomp since last 4 months, if that holds then we can see a sharp bounce back otherwise stock will head to 550-600 odd levels in short term. And that level will be a very good level to buy for long term



Have a nice and wonderful trading day

Regards

Ankit

What will come first 4500 or 5500? Its anybody's guess

What will come first 4500 or 5500? This is a common question being asked after today's upmove. In emerging markets like India, sometimes everything is done to its extreme whether its an upmove or downmove. When bulls are in full charge, they make sure that each and every bear in the Indian markets is killed and similarly when bears are in full control, they make sure that each and every bull is killed.


Nifty View:


This retracement move has to pause to give the next big move. Yesterday i talked about two scenarios, out of which scenario 1 comes into play. On upside there are still 2 resistances left in terms of Fibonacci retracement and those are 4933 (61.8%) and 5028 (74%)


0%- 4538,
38.2%- 4784,
50%-4860,
61.8%- 4936,
74%- 5028,
100% - 5182

4950-5000 won't be easy to cross as around these levels market bounced many times in the past, so what acted as a great support now will act as a huge resistance. It won't be as easy for bulls as it was today to cross 50 dma and on the top of it close way above it.


Dow Jones view:

Exactly same chart pattern was observed in Nifty at 5150 odd levels and we all know Nifty corrected almost 15 % to 4500 odd level. Going by the charts Dow Jones will face huge resistance in the zone of 10300-10400. This rising wedge pattern is a bearish pattern and it will come into play as and when the index gives 2-3 closings below the lower trendline which it is obeying since MARCH 2009





Have a nice trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

Retracement almost achieved targets, Now see rangebound movement before the next move

After touching a high of 4836 on Friday, Nifty almost completed the retracement target of 4860. Now the question is " Where are we headed after this pullback from oversold situation?? ". Meanwhile during this weekend our Prime Minister Manmohan Singh gave reassurances for a medium term target of 9% still on track and further said that government will wind down stimulus packages in 2010 that it gave this year.


Nifty View:

The answer to the above question asked is that we will see a range bound markets until we see a big move. The range is 4600 on down side and 4850-4900 on the upside. As there will be a lot of supply coming around 4850 levels as that is 50% retracement level of the recent fall and 4900 will act as a huge resistance for bulls to take out as this level acted as a huge support for the past few months.

Scenario 1 : If Nifty takes out 4850-4900 then next resistance comes out to be 5050 to 5100

Scenario 2 : If Nifty closes down below 4600 with huge volumes then next target may be around 4400 levels

Stock view: TITAN

The stock has always obeyed the trendline starting from July 2009 uptill now. The trendline also survived the recent crash and was not violated on closing basis, so it simply means that the trend of the stock is up until and unless it breaks this trendline (on closing basis )which is placed at 1240-1250 odd levels .


Stock View: Usha Martin

The stock has bounced back from very strong support zone of 59-60 levels, though not with huge volumes. If stays above this support zone can see a breakout above 75-80 levels. It is advised to accumulate this stock on every decline



Have a wonderful trading day

Regards

Ankit

After extreme volatile day of trade, Nifty achieves first target of around 4780

After extreme volatility in the day, news from Finance Ministry that it is considering on lowering direct tax rates under new Direct tax code lifted the sentiments of market participants up. After taking cues from weak Asian Markets markets opened weak, and continued to slide further till it took support from 4600-4625 and bounced back sharply to the levels mentioned yesterday on the blog 4750-4780.

Nifty View:

Nifty as expected took support from 4625 levels and then bounced back to 4660 and then again came back to test 4600 and after that it never looked back. Nifty has also retraced back 38.2% of the entire fall which was 4784 which is almost completed. The next hurdle only comes at 50% of the entire fall which is placed at 4860 and the 50 day moving average at 4875.

0%- 4538,
38.2%- 4784,
50%-4860,
61.8%- 4936,
100% - 5182

So 4855-4875 will be very difficult to crossover, as i have three reasons to justify that

1. 50 day moving average at 4875
2. 50% retracement level at 4860
3. Last top made on 30th october is at 4853.65 after which Nifty fell 150 points from day's high

Stock View: IDFC

IDFC has been standing rock solid in last few days, when markets were falling like anything. It can be bought at current levels with a stop loss of 146.5 and with a target of 182




Have a wonderful trading day,

Regards

Ankit

You keep a glass filled with water upside down on the first day, the very next day you put that glass on table and fill it with water slowly

Yes this is what i personally felt during market hours as what has happened today is not usually seen after a down move of around 500 points on Sensex. I personally expected a bounce back till 4650-4670, but nobody would have expected a bounce back to the tune of 500 points on Sensex, recovering all the losses in a single day. The thing that i found unique in these two days was that top 5 stocks that were down yesterday on Nifty are same stocks ( barring Suzlon which is down due to different reasons ) that are top 5 gainers on Nifty today, normally what happens is that the stocks that take the market down are not the stocks that give the move up. Yes these beaten down stocks should have bounced back but not so much that they become the top 5 gainers of next day.

Nifty view:

"4784 is quite possible in the coming days" is the answer of the question, that everybody is asking where will this pull back end?

0%- 4538,
38.2%- 4784,
50%-4860,
61.8%- 4936,
100% - 5182

So after almost 9 days of falling, we finally saw a huge pull back in Nifty. This pull back will face huge resistance at 4750-4780 and if there is any down move then there is a good support around 4625-4645. Nifty has to consolidate during some range and then one can expect a start of the up move for a long term




Have a nice trading day!!!

Regards

Ankit

Enough is enough!!! A panic buying expected turns into panic selling

Daily fall in markets in the last few days have left investors and most importantly traders frustrated and worried. " Enough is enough!!! " are the three words that might have been heard in the dealing rooms across India today. Few months ago many analysts on various TV channels were talking about panic buying taking place and they claimed that it will be done by those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to deploy its cash. But going by the today's trading session where there was no support whatsoever working, it seems that it was all due to panic selling rather than a panic buying that was expected by many analysts. Investors are advised to deploy their cash slowly and slowly and not in one go!


Nifty view:

4557 is a major support as it is fifty percent of total up move. if 4557 doesnt hold on closing basis then expect 4419 as the next support which is 61.8 % of the totak upmove. According to Fibonacci levels, markets need to bounce back these crucial support levels. The technical indicator also indicatiang that Nifty is in highly oversold zone and may bounce back very sharply



Have a nice trading day!

Regards

Ankit

After a long weekend, its time to price in some of the news

On Friday, Nifty touched a high of 4853.65 which was very close to 50 day moving average level of 4859 and fell like nine pins only to close at 4711. This fall caused many people to ask. " Aaj bazaar itna kyun gira diya? kal ( thursday ) to Dow Jones 200 point up tha ". The answer to this although the provisional data for FII's & DII's show that they are net buyers but there may be some Foreign Institutional Investors who thought that last thursday rally of 200 points was too much and that is why the next very day DowJones retraced back all its gains that was made on thursday and fell more than couple of hundred points. On Monday, Asian markets fell anywhere between 1-2% barring HangSeng taking the cues from U.S markets close on Friday.The HSBC's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) based on a survey of 500 companies, fell to 54.5 in October from 55 in September. A reading above 50 means activity expanded during the month but at a slightly slower pace as growth in new orders and output slowed


Nifty View:

As expected bounce did happen and Nifty did face stiff resistance at around 50 dma and will continue to do so for some more time. For traders, the Friday's down move in the later part of the day should be a lesson for future that some profits should be booked after a gap up if someone has bought at lower levels



Dow Jones view:

It is trying to come back into channel as it attempted to do so Today but failed eventually. Dow was up around 150 points in the opening one hour but constant selling pressure was seen from investors after that and it came into negative territory.




Stock View: Mundra port




Sorry, for not updating a detailed report on " Impact of longer trading hours " last weekend & will definitely complete in this weekend and if i get time i would try to post about the tariff war that is going on

Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit