Taking budget into consideration, Market Participants are so undecided that the high & low of Nifty in last 3 days is almost same.

Nifty View:

This was the most low volatile expiry I have seen in recent times. Markets are trading in a range of roughly 100 - 130 points. 4770/4800 on downside are the key support levels & 4920/4950 are the levels to watch out for on Upside moves.

As you see in charts, there is a clear triangle formation there. The red line is a line joining all key resistances and the purple line is the line joining all key supports.

Traders are requested to stay calm and dont panic while the budget is announced and wait for breakout or breakdown confirmations, TILL THEN DONT TRADE AGGRESIVELY.


People who have a view that budget will be a non-event can go for Short strangle strategy :
Short 5100 CE at 55 rs and Short 4500 PE at 45 rs. ( Premium received 100 rs, if markets stay in range then you can 100 rs/lot )


People who have a view that budget will give 3-4% fast moves on Index can go for Long strangle strategy:
Long 5000 CE at 90 and Long 4700 PE at 90 ( If markets give 3-4% moves then you can earn using this starategy)





Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

NIfty view remains the same as yesterday.. Stocks to watch out for -- Ruchisoya

Nifty View: Remains the same as Yesterday

Just rest till we get confirmations below 4790/4770 or above 4925/4955. Whatever it may happen, breakout or breakdown you will get easy 50-100 points on either side. As this is a budget week + monthly close + weekly close + f&o expiry so volatility in this week will remain at its high, if you are die-hard and risky trader then trade cautiously with adequate stop loss.



Stock View: Ruchi Soya

The stock has been more or less range bound since OCTOBER 2009 and since then has been constantly making higher lows with the top being the same.

The stock can be bought in 2 ways:

1) Buy if crosses and sustains above 102-103 ( make sure it sustains above these levels as last time in Jan it could not sustain and went back to the level of 85 ) for target of 112/120 with a stoploss of 96.

2) Buy closer to 95-96 on dips for targets of 112/120 with stoploss 86



Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

Short below 4790/4770, Long above 4925/4955.... Till then nothing doing, take rest and have a Kit-Kat Break

Nifty View:

It is not necessary to trade everyday and moreover no Doctor says that :). Just rest till we get confirmations below 4790/4770 or above 4925/4955. Whatever it may happen, breakout or breakdown you will get easy 50-100 points on either side.

As this is a budget week + monthly close + weekly close + f&o expiry so volatility in this week will remain at its high, if you are die-hard and risky trader then trade cautiously with adequate stop loss.




Stock View: TWL

The recent fall in Titagarh Wagons that came as a shock to many people yesterday would not have affected a good Technical Analyst as he would have sensed that the fall was coming.

People who were late entrant in this stock & were waiting for Budget Play in this stock were the hardest hit as the fall from 460 to 400 came within minutes and gave nobody to think or put any stop loss, many stoplosses would have been skipped also during the sharp fall.
2 valid reasons why this stock shouldn't have been in your portfolio after the rally on 11 the feb:

1) Stock was trading closer to its red line ( line which joins all the major tops since October 2007) and was not breaking it, the stock should have been bought above the red line.
2) There were only 2 days left for Railway Budget, people shouldn' have speculated and should have exited longs




Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

4950-4960 on the upside will be difficult to cross.. 4790-4800 now becomes a very good support. Budget week starts.. Expect high Volatility

Nifty View:

With Asian markets holding steady, SGX Nifty indicates that Nifty may open gap up around 4900-4920 as U.S markets closed in the black totally ignoring Fed's move. So as we go closer to 4950-4960 try reducing your positions and stay light in this budget week.


Stock Views: IOC

IOC stock is showing a converging triangle pattern but with low volumes. The stock has multiple reistances around 330-332 but it has made a higher low formation since August 2009.

Buy Ioc only above 330-332 for targets of 345/460 but with a strict stop loss of 315. Do watch out for the volumes, as with low volumes breakout can turn out to be a fakeout.




Stock View: Mcdowell-N

The stock has been trading in a downward sloping parallel channel since December2009. thes stock is looking good as it outperformed the markets during the recent fall.

The stock is a buy only above 1400-1410 for targets 1490/1550. The stock can also be bought if it is closing near 1400 with high volumes. Chances are that it may give a breakout the very next day, but it becomes a risky pick.


Due to some personal work i could not post the blog for 2 days.

Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

There was an urgency to cover shorts in the last half an hour, As expected above 4860 Nifty zoomed. Now watchout for resistance zone of 4920-4950.

Nifty view:

4920-4950 is the strong resistance band for Nifty and 4845-4860 will act as a good support. Concentrate less on Nifty trading ( as it will open gap up ) and more on stocks ( as they will bounce back so there may be some trading opportunities )


Stock View: SIEMENS

Siemens stock has been trading in parallel channel since July 2009 and has seen a bounce back everytime it has gone near its green momentum lines.

At this point of time it is observing a triangle pattern as u can see in the charts.

Stock is a buy if it sustains above 675-680 for targets of 750 & 770 in extreme short term and the stop loss for the above trade should be placed at 635.




Stock View :SBIN

The stock has taken good support from the previous top in August 2009 and has been holding on to 1880-1890 levels since last 7 trading sessions.

The stock has been a major underperformer and may be a good bouncing candidate in coming days.

The stock can be bought at current levels with a stop of 1880 and targets are at 2030-2050.

2030- 24% of entire fall

2050- previous bottoms




Stock View: Brandhouse

The stock is looking good on charts as it is holding on to major purple support line since July 2009 and now has given breakout with huge huge volumes above its major Red resistance line and the multiple tops around 33.

The stock can be bought around 33-34 for targets of 36.5/3 in extreme short term. The stop loss for above trades should be placed at 31.




Stock View: BHEL

The stock is showing a converging pattern and is looking good on charts. During recent fall in the benchmark Index also this stock has held on to its green support line which it is holding on since July 2009.

The stock is a buy if it sustains above 2420-2430 with a stop of 2340 for short term targets of 2520 /2600.




Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

Boring Markets nowadays... Expect Markets to show some moves as we go closer to budget day. Nifty has support around 4770/4730

Nifty View:

Nothing has changed much since yesterday. The view remains the same. Bounce back that has started can take Nifty up to 4860 & 4920. Nifty has good support at 4770/ 4730. Below these Nifty will again become weak and may head for the previous low of 4675.


Stock View: Bajaj-Auto

Bajaj-Auto is moving in the range of roughly 150 rupees since December 2009. It is facing stiff resistance near 1800-1840 levels and has a good support around 1640-1660 levels.

Once it crosses 1840 with huge vols then expect 2000-2050 on this stock. The stoploss for this trade should be placed at 1730.Only problem is vols, please buy if and only if the volumes are closer or higher than 10-day average volume.





Stock View: Burnpur Cement

Burnpur Cement Stock is holding on to the purple line since March 2008 low and now has almost crosses the two Red Resistance lines. The stock is looking good for short term as there are huge volumes to support the breakout too.

The stock can be bought if it sustains above yesterday's high of 15.75 for a quick move or buy at current level with targets of 17.5/19 and with a stop loss of 14 on closing basis.


Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

Stellar IIP no.s at around 17%... 4860/4920 the levels to watch out for on upside

Nifty View:

Now that the bounce back has started it can take Nifty up to 4860 & 4920. Nifty has good support at 4770/ 4730. Below these Nifty will again become weak and may head for the previous low of 4675.


Stock View: Sterling Biotech

The stock has been one of the largest underperformers in the recent times but Technically its taking good support at around 90 level. If it holds 90 then it can give a good 10-15% bounceback. So Buy SterlinBio at current levels with a stop loss of 90 ( don't wait for closing ) and targets for this stock are 105/110.


Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

Markets are undecided about where to go... Wait on sidelines for Markets to breakout or breakdown

Nifty View:

The view remains the same as yesterday. 4730 will act as support and 4830/4860 will act as resistance.



Stock View: Adanient

Buy above 490 or on declines to 460 with a stop loss of 430 for targets of 520/550. Need large volumes for breakout




Stock View: ENIL

Buy on a closing above 250 or on declines to 220 with a stop loss of 200 on closing basis for targets of 270/295.


Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

Some respite for Bulls, 4860/4920 are the levels to watch out for on the upside. Supports are placed at 4770/4730

Nifty View:

At least we have stopped falling and Nifty bounces back from around my level of 4660 i.e 630 points fall from the high, exactly same that took place in the month of October ( see previous post ).

Now that the bounce back has started it can take Nifty up to 4860( the red line which will act as resistance around these levels ) and 4920 ( which is around the recent top & 38% retracement of the entire fall of 630 points.

Nifty has good support at 4770/ 4730. Below these Nifty will again become weak and may head for the previous low of 4675.




Stock View: NagarFert

Budget favourite stock- NagarFert, Since March 2009 is taking support from the green trendline and is not closing below that as a result of which green line is a strong support line.

Stock can be included in your portfolio for short term at around current levels of 35 with a stop loss of 30 on closing basis for targets of 50-55.

Stock will gain momentum only after sustaining above 40-42 levels as there are many overhead resistances in the stock at that level ( see chart, the red lines act as resistances )




Stock View: STC India

STCindia - Trader's favourite stock has given breakout from its pennant like chart pattern and the volumes of the last move were also huge so its the price-volume breakout.

Stock is a buy on dips to 530-532 for very short term targets of 560.

If the stock has to be included in the portfolio for short term then it can be bought at around 520 for targets of 650 and stop loss would be 475


Sorry for not posting for last 2 days as i was busy with some work.

Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

4550-4650 here we come... Don't short around these levels

Nifty View:

Finally after 4 days of rangebound trading we have decided to breakdown as all the world markets closed or are trading 2-3 % down. 4650-4550 are now the levels to watch out for due to the following reasons:

1) 200 DMA which is a long term support lies in this range,

2) 4540 was the low made in month of October and that will act as a great support

3) 640 points was the fall in the month of October and then we bounced back sharply.

October 5180-4540 = 640
February 5300-640= 4660
So the level comes out to be around 4650.

But Just remember if we close below 4400-4500 on a weekly/monthly basis then the long term trend of Nifty could be in question. If anything of this sort happens then we can see follow up correction of 10-15% in the index.

Its time for long term investors to step in and start investing in a pyramid manner. How to invest in a pyramid manner?. Look previous posts on the blog.



Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

Sustained move above 4965 can take Nifty to 5000/5040, Important supports are placed at 4900/4860. Midcaps/ Smallcaps may catch up in coming days

Nifty View:

We have retraced 38% (4950) of the entire downfall from 5310 to 4770, now to go beyond this we need to cross 4965 for a move upto psychological level of 5000 & then 50% retracement level i.e 5040. The moving average crossover is also taking place 5035-5050 which would be difficult for Nifty to break. As we are going up the participation is getting low, we recorded the lowest volumes in last 6 trading sessions when Nifty was up 100 points. The supports for the Nifty are placed at 4900/4860.




Stock View:Chennai Petro

Since Novemeber 2009 CHENNPETRO stock is not closing below the Green support line which is a good sign as this stock is making higher lows. There is also a Red Line which will act as a resistance for any upmove. Buy this stock at current levels around 240 and add more above 253 for short term targets of 265 and 280. Keep a stop of 220 on closing basis.





Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

As i have been posting since 2 days 4940-4960 will act as first resistance, Nifty falls from 4951 level. Till 4760-4780 is held by Nifty DON'T WORRY

Nifty View:

It would be a herculean task for Bulls to cross 4940-4960 level now. But it would be a very easy task for Bears to break Friday's low of 4760-4780 because momentum has turned down since Nifty broke the purple momentum line on the charts. The last hope for Bulls is that there are cluster of supports between 4830 & 4760 and Nifty might take support at any of them and give bounce back. The support levels are :
4827, 4814, 4802, 4785, 4765
There would be a gap up opening but on the downside these will act as some kind of supports on the falling knife.



Stock View: TIL

The TIL stock has been facing lot of resistance at the red trendline and has reversed back 4 times( four circles ) from it but stock is also taking support and holding the blue support line since June 2009. Since volumes are so high there could be some actvity going on. Buy TIL above 410 or buy on dips to 340-350 for short term target of 500 with a strict stoploss of 290.



Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

5040/5090 stop loss for Bears.... 4860/4830 support for Bulls, Dow Jones can bounce back to 10215/10350

Nifty View: Same as yesterday

The levels given below will act as strong resistances ;

1) 4940-4960 ( 38% retracement + last support which was held by Nifty)

2) 5030-5040 ( 50 % retracement + high made on 25th Jan)

3) 5090 ( 62% retracement + high made on 22th jan )


Dow Jones view:

DowJones has bounced back sharply from the green trendline (starting from August) and around psychological support level of 10000. This bounce back can face strong hurdles around 10320-10350 because of the following reasons:

1) Red line which was earlier a support now will act as a barrier and is placed around 10350.

2)38% of the entire fall from 10770 to low of 10045 come out to be 10320

3) There is 50 EMA at around 10350 which will act as a hurdle for Dow Jones.




Stocks to watch out for:

Buy BHEL above 2430-2450 for short term targets of 2520-2550 .

Buy ALBK if it crosses and closes above 145 or wait on dips to 135 to buy this stock. The targets for stock in short term are 145-160. The stop loss for all the trades should be placed at 130 on closing basis.

Buy Gtl Infra above 46 for targets for 48/49.5 in extreme short term ( chart posted some days back)


Stock View: HINDUNILVR

After HINDUNILVR stock broke the purple support line it fell very sharply as the stock was holding this purple support line since last 6 months and had a strong support at that level. Now the stock is getting a bit oversold and can bounce back sharply from its next strong support zone of 220-225. This sharp fall is due to cut in prices of its products which can lead to reduced margins. As it is a defensive pick so investors can start accumulating this stock from 230-220 and buying should be done in a pyramid manner so that when markets fall from here there should be some defensive pick in the portfolio which gives positive returns at that point of time.



Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit

Nifty ignores RBI's move and bounces back sharply.. Now the question is at what levels this bounce back will face resistance??

Nifty View: As I have been saying for past few days that 4800 is an important level to watch out for ( see previous posts ) , Nifty third time took support from the green trendline which is placed around 4800 shown by 3 small red circles.

Now the question everyone would ask is till where this bounce back can last??

The answer is the levels given below will act as strong resistances
1) 4940-4960 ( 38% retracement + last support which was held by Nifty
2) 5030-5040 ( 50 % retracement + high made on 25th Jan)
3) 5090 ( 62% retracement + high made on 22th jan )

Plus watchout for the purple trendline in the charts it would be difficult to crossover.





Stock View: Bank Baroda

This Friday the Bank Baroda stock has given a multi-month breakout on the charts. The stock did outperform the markets in the last few days and also didn't break its green support line while index was correcting 10%. The stock can be bought in dips to 565-570 levels for targets for 590-620 and the stop loss should be placed at 525 for this trade.




Stock View: BHEL

The stock is witnessing a converging triangle pattern on Daily charts which if broken can give 100-120 points either side very easily. The stock has overhead resistances placed at 2430-2450. If the stock crosses this resistance with volumes then it can be headed to 2550. So Buy BHEL above 2430-2450 for short term targets of 2520-2550 .


Stock View: Allahbad Bank

Allahabad bank is also witnessing a bullish pattern on the charts and is about to cross the three month old red coloured resistance line on the charts. The stock is a buy if it crosses and closes above 145 or wait on dips to 135 to buy this stock. The targets for stock in short term are 145-160. The stop loss for all the trades should be placed at 130 on closing basis.



Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit