Bang on Target... 4954 Nifty's low and then rally upto 5080 level... DowJones didn't close below 10100-10200 range

After stupendous rally in Nifty from the lows of 4954 ( we predicted this right :p ) to 5080 on Friday, we could see Nifty trading in this range till we see a breakout or a breakdown. There can be only two scenarios in this case and the same i will discuss now.


Nifty View:

Scenario 1: In case of a breakout above 5080-5090

In scenario 1, if Nifty is able to cross 5080-5090, the level from where Nifty reversed back on Friday, then the next hurdle is placed at 5170-5180 which is 61.8% retracement of the entire downmove from 5310 to 4954. It would be an uphill task for bulls to cross this level of 5170-5180, so the chances are that we can easily see a small dip to 5080 level and then a strong pullback to overcome resistance of 5180. If 5180 is crossed convincingly with volumes then we will most probably continue to look for new high above 5310. And it will also confirm DowTheory of Higher Highs and Higher lows.




Scenario 2: If Nifty closes down below 4920-4950

In scenario 2, in case of a breakdown below strong support zone of 4920-4950 and remember breakdown here also means that we should close below this range of 4920-4950. Incapability to cross 5180 and a close below the range of 4920-4950 will give a confirmation for Head and shoulder pattern which I have tried to visualize in charts. In this case the next major support after 4920 will come around 4750-4800 and the last and final support will come around 4550-4600 ( a close below this level will end the entire upmove momentum. )




Stock View: JUBLIANT

Excellent Flag pattern observed in this stock. Trading can be done in both ways:

1) Buy above 363 for targets of 380 and 395

2) Sell below 326 for targets of 315 and 292.

Keep acquisiton price as your stop loss if first target is achieved.




Have a nice trading day

Regards

Ankit