Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Consolidation needed before we touch a new high, 5270-5300 to act as a strong resistance ... Expect more stock specific moves from now onwards

Nifty View:

There is a very mild possibility of formation oF Head and Shoulder Pattern on the daily charts on Nifty as we are approaching the second shoulder part which is near 5250-5300 level. Nifty needs to take out 5300 on closing basis to rule out any possibility of Head and Shoulder formation. Nifty needs to consolidate first before giving a breakout above 5300 as indicators are also looking overbought. My view is that we are overbought, we need consolidation before we take out 5250-5300 range and make a new high.

On the Relative Strength Index, the first overbought level was when Nifty made a high of 5300 in Jan 2010, the second overbought level was when Nifty made a high of 5400 in April 2010. After both these highs we saw a major fall in markets of around 10%. I am not saying that necessarily we will again fall 10% but we need to consolidate between 5100-5300 before giving the next move up as markets are highly overbought.




Stock view: MTNL

Mtnl stock is looking good and may be a candidate for a good bounce back. After a period of consolidation the stock is trying to move up. Buy MTNL 55-55.5 with a stoploss of 53 on closing with targets 58.5/62 in short term.





Stock View: DS Kulkarni

Since April, the stock was moving in a downward sloping trend  but now it seems that the stock is ready for a breakout. Once it crosses the downward sloping trendline it may give a good quick upmove. Buy Ds Kulkarni developers @ 67-67.5 with a stoploss of 65 on closing basis and look for targets of 73/75 in short term.



Have a nice trading day

Ankit

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